China’s Humanoid Robot Sales Poised to Double as Production Costs Plummet
China's humanoid robot market is accelerating faster than analysts predicted. Morgan Stanley now expects sales to double by 2026, revising its initial forecast of 14,000 units upward after manufacturers like Unitree Robotics shipped over 5,500 units by January 2026. These machines are becoming fixtures at major national events, including CCTV's Spring Festival Gala.
Costs are collapsing. With 63% of global humanoid robot supply chains anchored in China, component prices from suppliers like Inovance Technology and Tuopu Group are dropping precipitously. Morgan Stanley projects a 16% material cost decline in 2026, while Bain & Co. foresees a 70% global component price drop by 2035.
The affordability revolution is coming. At $21,000 per unit by 2050, these robots will penetrate middle-income markets—a price point that could reshape manufacturing and service sectors worldwide. Western firms face mounting pressure as China's cost advantages compound.